NC-03 House Election Winner
As of November 11, 2026, the favorite is Raymond Smith Jr. (D) at 99%, ahead of Greg Murphy (R) at 0.5%. $1.4M has traded across 2 outcomes. The biggest move this week: Raymond Smith Jr. (D), +58 pts.
The field
Three months of it
- Raymond Smith Jr. (D) 99%
- Greg Murphy (R) 0.5%
Show the numbers
| Date | Raymond Smith Jr. (D) | Greg Murphy (R) |
|---|---|---|
| August 13, 2026 | 13.5% | 85.5% |
| August 20, 2026 | 13.5% | 85.5% |
| August 26, 2026 | 14.0% | 85.5% |
| September 2, 2026 | 14.0% | 85.5% |
| September 9, 2026 | 13.5% | 85.5% |
| September 16, 2026 | 13.0% | 85.5% |
| September 22, 2026 | 13.0% | 86.5% |
| September 29, 2026 | 14.0% | 86.0% |
| October 6, 2026 | 13.5% | 86.0% |
| October 14, 2026 | 16.5% | 83.5% |
| October 23, 2026 | 21.0% | 79.5% |
| November 3, 2026 | 38.5% | 60.5% |
| November 10, 2026 | 89.7% | 8.5% |
| November 11, 2026 | 99.2% | 0.5% |
Quick answers
- What are the odds for Raymond Smith Jr. (D) in "NC-03 House Election Winner"?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 99% as of November 11, 2026, up 58 points from a week earlier. A 99 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- What are the odds for Greg Murphy (R) in "NC-03 House Election Winner"?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 0.5% as of November 11, 2026, down 57 points from a week earlier. A 1 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- How are these odds calculated?
- They are the YES price of each contract on Polymarket: the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the spread is 10 cents or less, otherwise the last trade. Prices are fetched from Polymarket's public data and this page shows when.
How this one gets decided
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NC-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).