Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by...?
As of November 11, 2026, the favorite is December 31 at 4%. $2.3M has traded across 3 outcomes.
The field
Three months of it
Show the numbers
| Date | December 31 |
|---|---|
| August 13, 2026 | 21.5% |
| August 20, 2026 | 17.5% |
| August 26, 2026 | 17.0% |
| September 2, 2026 | 16.5% |
| September 9, 2026 | 14.0% |
| September 16, 2026 | 13.5% |
| September 22, 2026 | 16.5% |
| September 29, 2026 | 16.5% |
| October 6, 2026 | 11.0% |
| October 14, 2026 | 9.5% |
| October 23, 2026 | 6.5% |
| November 3, 2026 | 3.0% |
| November 10, 2026 | 4.1% |
| November 11, 2026 | 3.6% |
Quick answers
- What are the odds for December 31 in "Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by...?"?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 4% as of November 11, 2026, up 0 points from a week earlier. A 4 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- How are these odds calculated?
- They are the YES price of each contract on Polymarket: the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the spread is 10 cents or less, otherwise the last trade. Prices are fetched from Polymarket's public data and this page shows when.
How this one gets decided
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Cuba’s current leader, Miguel Díaz-Canel, is removed from power for any length of time by the listed date, ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, Díaz-Canel will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise ceases to hold (or is publicly reported to be unable to perform the duties of) the office of First Secretary of the Communist Party of Cuba, which is widely regarded as Cuba’s top political post, within this market’s timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.