Which Senate Swing States will Republicans win? (Build Your Map)
As of November 11, 2026, the favorite is None at 99%, ahead of AK at 1%. $78.8M has traded across 128 outcomes. The biggest move this week: None, +6 pts.
The field
Three months of it
- None 99%
- AK 1%
Show the numbers
| Date | None | AK |
|---|---|---|
| October 27, 2026 | 37.5% | 22.0% |
| October 29, 2026 | 18.5% | 0.1% |
| October 30, 2026 | 25.5% | 1.4% |
| November 1, 2026 | 24.5% | 1.3% |
| November 2, 2026 | 31.5% | 1.9% |
| November 3, 2026 | 33.5% | 1.7% |
| November 4, 2026 | 82.5% | 16.1% |
| November 6, 2026 | 96.3% | 3.5% |
| November 7, 2026 | 98.4% | 1.4% |
| November 8, 2026 | 98.4% | 1.4% |
| November 9, 2026 | 98.3% | 1.3% |
| November 10, 2026 | 98.7% | 1.1% |
| November 11, 2026 | 98.8% | 1.2% |
Quick answers
- What are the odds for None in "Which Senate Swing States will Republicans win? (Build Your Map)"?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 99% as of November 11, 2026, up 6 points from a week earlier. A 99 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- What are the odds for AK in "Which Senate Swing States will Republicans win? (Build Your Map)"?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 1% as of November 11, 2026, down 4 points from a week earlier. A 1 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- How are these odds calculated?
- They are the YES price of each contract on Polymarket: the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the spread is 10 cents or less, otherwise the last trade. Prices are fetched from Polymarket's public data and this page shows when.
How this one gets decided
This market will resolve according to which of the United States Senate general elections in Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio (special election), and Texas, currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, are won by the Republican candidate, inclusive of any potential runoffs. Each listed outcome names the exact set of these states in which the Republican candidate wins. An outcome will resolve to "Yes" only if the Republican candidate wins every state it names and does not win any of the other states covered by this market. A state counts as not won by the Republican candidate if any other candidate wins it, including a Democratic, independent, or third-party candidate, or if its results cannot be determined by March 31, 2027. A candidate will be considered to represent the Republican Party by their ballot-listed affiliation or if they are the nominee of the Republican Party. Candidates who run as independents will not be considered to represent the Republican Party regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively c