Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?
As of November 11, 2026, the favorite is China at 92%, ahead of No meeting by December 31 at 8%. $2.5M has traded across 15 outcomes. The biggest move this week: China, +11 pts.
The field
Three months of it
- China 92%
- No meeting by December 31 8%
- United States 0.5%
- Russia 0.3%
- Turkey 0.1%
Show the numbers
| Date | China | No meeting by December 31 | United States | Russia | Turkey |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| August 13, 2026 | 30.5% | 64.5% | 1.2% | 2.2% | 0.3% |
| August 20, 2026 | 37.0% | 59.5% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 0.9% |
| August 27, 2026 | 49.0% | 47.5% | 0.4% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
| September 3, 2026 | 53.5% | 41.5% | 0.5% | 1.4% | 0.9% |
| September 10, 2026 | 55.0% | 35.0% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 1.3% |
| September 17, 2026 | 51.5% | 33.0% | 3.9% | 1.5% | 1.1% |
| September 24, 2026 | 68.0% | 22.0% | 6.5% | 0.9% | 0.8% |
| October 1, 2026 | 69.5% | 21.5% | 4.3% | 0.6% | 0.6% |
| October 8, 2026 | 78.0% | 18.5% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.3% |
| October 16, 2026 | 73.0% | 24.0% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.4% |
| October 26, 2026 | 77.5% | 17.5% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
| November 5, 2026 | 88.5% | 10.5% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| November 11, 2026 | 92.0% | 8.0% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
Quick answers
- What are the odds for China in "Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?"?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 92% as of November 11, 2026, up 11 points from a week earlier. A 92 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- What are the odds for No meeting by December 31 in "Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?"?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 8% as of November 11, 2026, down 5 points from a week earlier. A 8 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- What are the odds for United States in "Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?"?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 0.5% as of November 11, 2026, down 0 points from a week earlier. A 1 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- How are these odds calculated?
- They are the YES price of each contract on Polymarket: the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the spread is 10 cents or less, otherwise the last trade. Prices are fetched from Polymarket's public data and this page shows when.
How this one gets decided
This market will resolve according to the location of the next meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. This market will resolve to "No meeting by December 31" if no qualifying meeting occurs during this market's timeframe. A meeting is defined as any encounter where Putin and Trump are all present and interact with each other in person. An exchange of words, handshake, direct conversation, or other clear personal interaction between the named individuals will qualify as a meeting. Merely standing in proximity, making eye contact, or being present in the same room or event without direct interaction will not qualify. For this market, Gulf states are defined as the six members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates). The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.