Taipei Mayor Election Winner
As of November 11, 2026, the favorite is Chiang Wan-an at 66%, ahead of Puma Shen at 35%. $4.6M has traded across 3 outcomes. The biggest move this week: Puma Shen, +4 pts.
The field
Three months of it
- Chiang Wan-an 66%
- Puma Shen 35%
- Kuo Hsi 0.1%
Show the numbers
| Date | Chiang Wan-an | Puma Shen | Kuo Hsi |
|---|---|---|---|
| August 14, 2026 | 89.0% | 1.5% | 2.5% |
| August 21, 2026 | 91.5% | 7.8% | 0.1% |
| August 28, 2026 | 91.5% | 7.6% | 0.1% |
| September 4, 2026 | 93.5% | 7.3% | 0.1% |
| September 11, 2026 | 92.5% | 7.8% | 0.1% |
| September 18, 2026 | 86.0% | 14.2% | 0.1% |
| September 25, 2026 | 80.5% | 18.6% | 0.1% |
| October 2, 2026 | 82.5% | 18.1% | 0.1% |
| October 9, 2026 | 67.5% | 32.8% | 0.1% |
| October 17, 2026 | 61.5% | 39.1% | 0.1% |
| October 26, 2026 | 63.0% | 37.5% | 0.1% |
| November 3, 2026 | 65.5% | 34.4% | 0.1% |
| November 10, 2026 | 65.5% | 35.3% | 0.1% |
| November 11, 2026 | 65.5% | 34.6% | 0.1% |
Quick answers
- What are the odds for Chiang Wan-an in "Taipei Mayor Election Winner"?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 66% as of November 11, 2026, down 3 points from a week earlier. A 66 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- What are the odds for Puma Shen in "Taipei Mayor Election Winner"?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 35% as of November 11, 2026, up 4 points from a week earlier. A 35 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- What are the odds for Kuo Hsi in "Taipei Mayor Election Winner"?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 0.1% as of November 11, 2026. A 0 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- How are these odds calculated?
- They are the YES price of each contract on Polymarket: the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the spread is 10 cents or less, otherwise the last trade. Prices are fetched from Polymarket's public data and this page shows when.
How this one gets decided
Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Taipei as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder Mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).