Russia nuclear test by...?
As of November 11, 2026, the favorite is December 31, 2026 at 3%. $6.3M has traded across 6 outcomes.
The field
Three months of it
Show the numbers
| Date | December 31, 2026 |
|---|---|
| August 13, 2026 | 5.9% |
| August 20, 2026 | 6.1% |
| August 27, 2026 | 7.5% |
| September 3, 2026 | 5.7% |
| September 10, 2026 | 5.5% |
| September 17, 2026 | 5.3% |
| September 24, 2026 | 5.5% |
| October 1, 2026 | 5.5% |
| October 8, 2026 | 4.3% |
| October 16, 2026 | 4.5% |
| October 25, 2026 | 5.7% |
| November 2, 2026 | 4.3% |
| November 10, 2026 | 2.9% |
| November 11, 2026 | 2.9% |
Quick answers
- What are the odds for December 31, 2026 in "Russia nuclear test by...?"?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 3% as of November 11, 2026, down 1 points from a week earlier. A 3 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- How are these odds calculated?
- They are the YES price of each contract on Polymarket: the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the spread is 10 cents or less, otherwise the last trade. Prices are fetched from Polymarket's public data and this page shows when.
How this one gets decided
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield. Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution. Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia. The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.