Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
As of November 11, 2026, Polymarket traders put the chance of "Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?" at 3%, down 2 points over the past week. $29.7M has traded on this market.
Three months of it
Show the numbers
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| August 13, 2026 | 6.5% |
| August 20, 2026 | 6.5% |
| August 27, 2026 | 6.5% |
| September 3, 2026 | 6.5% |
| September 10, 2026 | 6.5% |
| September 17, 2026 | 6.5% |
| September 24, 2026 | 6.5% |
| October 1, 2026 | 6.5% |
| October 8, 2026 | 5.5% |
| October 16, 2026 | 5.5% |
| October 26, 2026 | 5.5% |
| November 5, 2026 | 3.5% |
| November 11, 2026 | 2.8% |
Quick answers
- What are the odds: Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 3% as of November 11, 2026, down 2 points from a week earlier. A 3 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- How are these odds calculated?
- They are the YES price of each contract on Polymarket: the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the spread is 10 cents or less, otherwise the last trade. Prices are fetched from Polymarket's public data and this page shows when.
How this one gets decided
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power. Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify. Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not quali