Nicolás Maduro released from custody by...?
As of November 11, 2026, the favorite is December 31 at 2%. $2.7M has traded across 3 outcomes.
The field
Three months of it
Show the numbers
| Date | December 31 |
|---|---|
| August 13, 2026 | 6.5% |
| August 20, 2026 | 6.5% |
| August 27, 2026 | 6.5% |
| September 4, 2026 | 7.5% |
| September 11, 2026 | 6.5% |
| September 18, 2026 | 6.5% |
| September 25, 2026 | 6.5% |
| October 3, 2026 | 4.5% |
| October 10, 2026 | 4.5% |
| October 18, 2026 | 4.5% |
| October 27, 2026 | 4.5% |
| November 4, 2026 | 4.3% |
| November 11, 2026 | 1.8% |
Quick answers
- What are the odds for December 31 in "Nicolás Maduro released from custody by...?"?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 2% as of November 11, 2026, down 3 points from a week earlier. A 2 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- How are these odds calculated?
- They are the YES price of each contract on Polymarket: the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the spread is 10 cents or less, otherwise the last trade. Prices are fetched from Polymarket's public data and this page shows when.
How this one gets decided
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is released from custody by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes". If Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes". Transporting Nicolás Maduro to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes". Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.