Will any country leave NATO by...?
As of November 11, 2026, the favorite is December 31, 2027 at 7%, ahead of June 30, 2027 at 5%. $1.4M has traded across 5 outcomes. The biggest move this week: December 31, 2027, −5 pts.
The field
Three months of it
- December 31, 2027 7%
- June 30, 2027 5%
- December 31, 2026 3%
Show the numbers
| Date | December 31, 2027 | June 30, 2027 | December 31, 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| October 30, 2026 | 49.0% | 51.5% | 4.8% |
| November 1, 2026 | 32.0% | 8.5% | 3.5% |
| November 2, 2026 | 30.5% | 8.5% | 3.1% |
| November 3, 2026 | 17.5% | 7.0% | 3.5% |
| November 3, 2026 | 13.5% | 6.0% | 6.5% |
| November 4, 2026 | 11.5% | 6.0% | 3.9% |
| November 5, 2026 | 11.0% | 5.5% | 3.9% |
| November 6, 2026 | 12.7% | 5.5% | 3.6% |
| November 7, 2026 | 11.1% | 5.5% | 3.3% |
| November 8, 2026 | 6.8% | 5.5% | 3.1% |
| November 9, 2026 | 6.6% | 5.0% | 3.0% |
| November 9, 2026 | 7.1% | 4.5% | 3.0% |
| November 10, 2026 | 6.6% | 4.5% | 3.0% |
| November 11, 2026 | 6.8% | 4.5% | 2.9% |
Quick answers
- What are the odds for December 31, 2027 in "Will any country leave NATO by...?"?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 7% as of November 11, 2026, down 5 points from a week earlier. A 7 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- What are the odds for June 30, 2027 in "Will any country leave NATO by...?"?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 5% as of November 11, 2026, down 1 points from a week earlier. A 5 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- What are the odds for December 31, 2026 in "Will any country leave NATO by...?"?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 3% as of November 11, 2026, down 2 points from a week earlier. A 3 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- How are these odds calculated?
- They are the YES price of each contract on Polymarket: the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the spread is 10 cents or less, otherwise the last trade. Prices are fetched from Polymarket's public data and this page shows when.
How this one gets decided
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any member state formally withdraws from NATO or provides an official notice of denunciation to NATO by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty. A country's exit from NATO’s integrated military command structure will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". That country must either withdraw or submit a notice of denunciation to trigger a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source will be official information from the relevant government and NATO, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.