Kash Patel out by...?
As of November 11, 2026, the favorite is December 31 at 10%. $1.8M has traded across 9 outcomes. The biggest move this week: December 31, −8 pts.
The field
Three months of it
Show the numbers
| Date | December 31 |
|---|---|
| August 13, 2026 | 24.5% |
| August 20, 2026 | 24.5% |
| August 27, 2026 | 23.5% |
| September 4, 2026 | 23.5% |
| September 11, 2026 | 22.5% |
| September 18, 2026 | 21.0% |
| September 25, 2026 | 19.5% |
| October 3, 2026 | 16.5% |
| October 10, 2026 | 22.5% |
| October 18, 2026 | 19.0% |
| October 26, 2026 | 20.5% |
| November 3, 2026 | 16.5% |
| November 11, 2026 | 10.0% |
Quick answers
- What are the odds for December 31 in "Kash Patel out by...?"?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 10% as of November 11, 2026, down 8 points from a week earlier. A 10 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- How are these odds calculated?
- They are the YES price of each contract on Polymarket: the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the spread is 10 cents or less, otherwise the last trade. Prices are fetched from Polymarket's public data and this page shows when.
How this one gets decided
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kash Patel ceases to be the Director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation for any period of by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Patel's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.