Politics / What the market thinks

Will Russia capture Lyman by...?

As of November 11, 2026, the favorite is December 31 at 4%. $3.2M has traded across 10 outcomes.

Polymarket data, fetched Nov 11, 2026, 04:27 UTC / $3.2M traded / $1.6K in the last 24 hours / closes January 1, 2027

The field

Three months of it

Will Russia capture Lyman by...?: implied probability over 90 days0%13%25%38%50%Aug 13, 2026Sep 27, 2026Nov 11, 2026
December 31 moved from 34% to 4% over 90 days (−29 pts). High: 44% on August 14, 2026. Low: 3% on November 9, 2026.
Show the numbers
DateDecember 31
August 13, 202633.5%
August 20, 202641.0%
August 27, 202632.5%
September 4, 202629.5%
September 11, 202611.5%
September 18, 20268.5%
September 25, 20266.5%
October 3, 20265.5%
October 10, 20265.5%
October 18, 20265.5%
October 27, 20265.5%
November 4, 20265.0%
November 11, 20264.3%

Quick answers

What are the odds for December 31 in "Will Russia capture Lyman by...?"?
Polymarket traders priced it at 4% as of November 11, 2026, down 1 points from a week earlier. A 4 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
How are these odds calculated?
They are the YES price of each contract on Polymarket: the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the spread is 10 cents or less, otherwise the last trade. Prices are fetched from Polymarket's public data and this page shows when.

How this one gets decided

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Lyman railroad station located on Vulytsya Pryvokzalʹna between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. The railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain - Assessed Russian Advances Shading under the following layers will not qualify: - Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas - Claimed Russian Territory Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result

The market on Polymarket