Politics / What the market thinks

Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...?

As of November 11, 2026, the favorite is December 31 at 6%. $2.9M has traded across 8 outcomes.

Polymarket data, fetched Nov 11, 2026, 04:27 UTC / $2.9M traded / $0 in the last 24 hours / closes January 1, 2027

The field

Three months of it

Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...?: implied probability over 90 days0%13%25%38%50%Aug 13, 2026Sep 27, 2026Nov 11, 2026
December 31 moved from 37% to 6% over 90 days (−30 pts). High: 45% on August 14, 2026. Low: 4% on November 2, 2026.
Show the numbers
DateDecember 31
August 13, 202636.5%
August 20, 202622.5%
August 26, 202632.5%
September 2, 202619.5%
September 9, 202622.5%
September 16, 202616.5%
September 22, 202620.0%
September 29, 202613.0%
October 6, 202612.5%
October 14, 202614.0%
October 24, 202612.0%
November 3, 20264.5%
November 10, 20266.0%
November 11, 20266.0%

Quick answers

What are the odds for December 31 in "Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...?"?
Polymarket traders priced it at 6% as of November 11, 2026, up 1 points from a week earlier. A 6 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
How are these odds calculated?
They are the YES price of each contract on Polymarket: the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the spread is 10 cents or less, otherwise the last trade. Prices are fetched from Polymarket's public data and this page shows when.

How this one gets decided

On October 8, an agreement on an initial ceasefire (Phase 1) was announced, constituting a halt in fighting, a partial Israeli pullback to a “yellow line,” prisoner swaps, expanded aid, and the release of hostages. A second phase of the deal, yet to be negotiated, is expected to address further Israeli withdrawal, Hamas’s disarmament, and the establishment of new security and governance arrangements in Gaza. This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement for the second phase of the Israel–Hamas ceasefire, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between Israel and Hamas by October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. For purposes of this market, a “second phase” ceasefire agreement refers to a deal publicly acknowledged by both Israel and Hamas (directly or via recognized mediators such as the U.S., Egypt, or Qatar) that goes beyond the Phase 1 initial truce and includes commitments towards a comprehensive or “full” ceasefire. Any agreement that is publicly descr

The market on Polymarket