What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?
As of November 11, 2026, the favorite is 4.25% at 85%, ahead of ≥ 4.5% at 11%. $7.2M has traded across 15 outcomes. The biggest move this week: 4.0%, −19 pts.
The field
Three months of it
- 4.25% 85%
- ≥ 4.5% 11%
- 4.0% 4%
- 3.75% 0.8%
- 3.5% 0.6%
Show the numbers
| Date | 4.25% | ≥ 4.5% | 4.0% | 3.75% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| August 13, 2026 | 13.6% | 6.5% | 21.3% | 42.5% | 8.5% |
| August 20, 2026 | 12.1% | 4.8% | 28.0% | 39.6% | 7.5% |
| August 27, 2026 | 17.3% | 4.3% | 30.9% | 35.1% | 7.8% |
| September 4, 2026 | 18.2% | 5.6% | 41.2% | 25.9% | 7.8% |
| September 11, 2026 | 22.1% | 5.5% | 43.3% | 21.1% | 5.1% |
| September 18, 2026 | 53.6% | 26.9% | 15.3% | 2.9% | 1.8% |
| September 25, 2026 | 48.8% | 41.5% | 7.0% | 0.4% | 0.4% |
| October 3, 2026 | 50.8% | 14.9% | 22.0% | 1.2% | 1.6% |
| October 10, 2026 | 64.0% | 12.2% | 22.1% | 0.9% | 1.5% |
| October 18, 2026 | 66.9% | 13.5% | 12.0% | 1.6% | 1.6% |
| October 27, 2026 | 71.0% | 7.7% | 18.9% | 1.3% | 1.1% |
| November 5, 2026 | 75.8% | 1.6% | 20.3% | 1.5% | 0.7% |
| November 11, 2026 | 85.1% | 10.6% | 4.2% | 0.8% | 0.6% |
Quick answers
- What are the odds for 4.25% in "What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?"?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 85% as of November 11, 2026, up 12 points from a week earlier. A 85 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- What are the odds for ≥ 4.5% in "What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?"?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 11% as of November 11, 2026, up 8 points from a week earlier. A 11 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- What are the odds for 4.0% in "What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?"?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 4% as of November 11, 2026, down 19 points from a week earlier. A 4 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- How are these odds calculated?
- They are the YES price of each contract on Polymarket: the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the spread is 10 cents or less, otherwise the last trade. Prices are fetched from Polymarket's public data and this page shows when.
How this one gets decided
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time. The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will res