Macron out by...?
As of November 11, 2026, the favorite is December 31, 2026 at 2%. $2.3M has traded across 5 outcomes.
The field
Three months of it
Show the numbers
| Date | December 31, 2026 |
|---|---|
| August 13, 2026 | 4.8% |
| August 20, 2026 | 7.4% |
| August 26, 2026 | 3.9% |
| September 2, 2026 | 4.0% |
| September 9, 2026 | 4.9% |
| September 16, 2026 | 4.1% |
| September 22, 2026 | 4.5% |
| September 29, 2026 | 2.1% |
| October 6, 2026 | 4.9% |
| October 14, 2026 | 4.0% |
| October 24, 2026 | 4.9% |
| November 3, 2026 | 1.8% |
| November 10, 2026 | 1.6% |
| November 11, 2026 | 1.6% |
Quick answers
- What are the odds for December 31, 2026 in "Macron out by...?"?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 2% as of November 11, 2026, down 0 points from a week earlier. A 2 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- How are these odds calculated?
- They are the YES price of each contract on Polymarket: the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the spread is 10 cents or less, otherwise the last trade. Prices are fetched from Polymarket's public data and this page shows when.
How this one gets decided
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Emmanuel Macron ceases to be President of France for any length of time between January 2 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Macron departs from office before the expiry date, the market should resolve immediately. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the government of France, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.