Highest grossing movie in 2026?
As of November 11, 2026, the favorite is Spider-Man: Brand New Day at 90%, ahead of Avengers: Doomsday at 10%. $18.5M has traded across 14 outcomes. The biggest move this week: Spider-Man: Brand New Day, −6 pts.
The field
Three months of it
- Spider-Man: Brand New Day 90%
- Avengers: Doomsday 10%
- The Super Mario Galaxy Movie 0.1%
- Wicked: For Good 0.1%
- Wuthering Heights 0.1%
Show the numbers
| Date | Spider-Man: Brand New Day | Avengers: Doomsday | The Super Mario Galaxy Movie | Wicked: For Good | Wuthering Heights |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| August 13, 2026 | 92.0% | 6.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| August 20, 2026 | 92.5% | 5.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| August 27, 2026 | 92.5% | 7.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| September 4, 2026 | 93.5% | 5.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| September 11, 2026 | 93.5% | 5.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| September 18, 2026 | 93.5% | 4.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| September 25, 2026 | 93.5% | 3.9% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| October 3, 2026 | 95.5% | 3.9% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| October 10, 2026 | 95.5% | 4.9% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| October 18, 2026 | 95.5% | 3.9% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| October 27, 2026 | 91.5% | 8.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| November 4, 2026 | 95.5% | 5.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| November 11, 2026 | 89.5% | 10.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
Quick answers
- What are the odds for Spider-Man: Brand New Day in "Highest grossing movie in 2026?"?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 90% as of November 11, 2026, down 6 points from a week earlier. A 90 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- What are the odds for Avengers: Doomsday in "Highest grossing movie in 2026?"?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 10% as of November 11, 2026, up 5 points from a week earlier. A 10 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- What are the odds for The Super Mario Galaxy Movie in "Highest grossing movie in 2026?"?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 0.2% as of November 11, 2026. A 0 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- How are these odds calculated?
- They are the YES price of each contract on Polymarket: the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the spread is 10 cents or less, otherwise the last trade. Prices are fetched from Polymarket's public data and this page shows when.
How this one gets decided
This market will resolve according to the title of the film with the highest 2026 gross according to the "Gross" column on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/2026/?grossesOption=calendarGrosses once data for December 31 is made available. Note: This market is about the movie's domestic calendar gross in 2026 - dates outside of 2026 will not count toward this movie's gross. In the event of an exact tie the film that comes first alphabetically will be considered the winner. If there is no final data available by January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.