Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?
As of November 11, 2026, Polymarket traders put the chance of " Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?" at 3%, down 5 points over the past week. $2.2M has traded on this market. The biggest move this week: the YES price, −5 pts.
Three months of it
Show the numbers
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| August 13, 2026 | 14.5% |
| August 20, 2026 | 10.5% |
| August 27, 2026 | 13.5% |
| September 4, 2026 | 13.0% |
| September 11, 2026 | 12.5% |
| September 18, 2026 | 11.5% |
| September 25, 2026 | 11.5% |
| October 3, 2026 | 13.5% |
| October 10, 2026 | 10.5% |
| October 18, 2026 | 3.8% |
| October 26, 2026 | 12.9% |
| November 4, 2026 | 8.6% |
| November 11, 2026 | 3.4% |
Quick answers
- What are the odds: Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 3% as of November 11, 2026, down 5 points from a week earlier. A 3 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- How are these odds calculated?
- They are the YES price of each contract on Polymarket: the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the spread is 10 cents or less, otherwise the last trade. Prices are fetched from Polymarket's public data and this page shows when.
How this one gets decided
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel. Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count. An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.