Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?
As of November 11, 2026, the favorite is Steve Witkoff at 37%, ahead of Abbas Araghchi at 37%. $2.2M has traded across 29 outcomes. The biggest move this week: Kazem Gharibabadi, −14 pts.
The field
Three months of it
- Steve Witkoff 37%
- Abbas Araghchi 37%
- Mohsen Rezaei 19%
- Jared Kushner 35%
- Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani 33%
Show the numbers
| Date | Steve Witkoff | Abbas Araghchi | Mohsen Rezaei | Jared Kushner | Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 2, 2026 | 16.0% | 27.5% | 31.0% | 29.0% | 15.5% |
| October 5, 2026 | 50.0% | 48.0% | 31.0% | 49.5% | 35.0% |
| October 8, 2026 | 43.5% | 42.5% | 31.0% | 44.5% | 35.5% |
| October 11, 2026 | 42.5% | 40.5% | 31.0% | 42.5% | 36.0% |
| October 14, 2026 | 41.5% | 41.0% | 31.0% | 41.5% | 31.5% |
| October 17, 2026 | 33.0% | 29.5% | 31.0% | 32.0% | 23.0% |
| October 20, 2026 | 35.5% | 35.0% | 31.0% | 36.5% | 31.0% |
| October 24, 2026 | 31.5% | 31.5% | 31.0% | 35.5% | 31.0% |
| October 28, 2026 | 32.5% | 35.0% | 31.0% | 36.5% | 24.5% |
| November 1, 2026 | 40.0% | 39.5% | 31.0% | 39.5% | 37.5% |
| November 4, 2026 | 34.0% | 32.5% | 31.0% | 32.0% | 35.0% |
| November 7, 2026 | 40.0% | 41.5% | 31.0% | 42.0% | 31.0% |
| November 10, 2026 | 38.0% | 38.0% | 35.5% | 35.0% | 38.0% |
| November 11, 2026 | 37.0% | 37.0% | 18.5% | 35.0% | 32.5% |
Quick answers
- What are the odds for Steve Witkoff in "Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?"?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 37% as of November 11, 2026, up 3 points from a week earlier. A 37 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- What are the odds for Abbas Araghchi in "Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?"?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 37% as of November 11, 2026, up 5 points from a week earlier. A 37 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- What are the odds for Mohsen Rezaei in "Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?"?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 37% as of November 11, 2026. A 37 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- How are these odds calculated?
- They are the YES price of each contract on Polymarket: the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the spread is 10 cents or less, otherwise the last trade. Prices are fetched from Polymarket's public data and this page shows when.
How this one gets decided
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments. Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time. Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part