Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?
As of November 11, 2026, the favorite is June 30, 2027 at 8%, ahead of December 31 at 1%. $4.8M has traded across 3 outcomes.
The field
Three months of it
- June 30, 2027 8%
- December 31 1%
Show the numbers
| Date | June 30, 2027 | December 31 |
|---|---|---|
| August 14, 2026 | 9.0% | 7.5% |
| August 21, 2026 | 11.5% | 5.5% |
| August 28, 2026 | 11.5% | 5.5% |
| September 4, 2026 | 11.5% | 5.5% |
| September 11, 2026 | 11.5% | 5.5% |
| September 18, 2026 | 11.5% | 5.5% |
| September 25, 2026 | 10.5% | 3.4% |
| October 2, 2026 | 9.5% | 2.5% |
| October 9, 2026 | 8.5% | 3.3% |
| October 17, 2026 | 9.0% | 2.5% |
| October 25, 2026 | 8.5% | 3.0% |
| November 3, 2026 | 7.0% | 2.3% |
| November 10, 2026 | 6.5% | 1.4% |
| November 11, 2026 | 7.5% | 1.3% |
Quick answers
- What are the odds for June 30, 2027 in "Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?"?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 8% as of November 11, 2026, up 1 points from a week earlier. A 8 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- What are the odds for December 31 in "Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?"?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 1% as of November 11, 2026, down 1 points from a week earlier. A 1 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- How are these odds calculated?
- They are the YES price of each contract on Polymarket: the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the spread is 10 cents or less, otherwise the last trade. Prices are fetched from Polymarket's public data and this page shows when.
How this one gets decided
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory in Crimea between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Territory will be considered captured if any part of Crimea is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. The border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Ukraine comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on