Who will be UFC Light Heavyweight champion at the end of 2026?
As of November 11, 2026, the favorite is Carlos Ulberg at 95%, ahead of Magomed Ankalaev at 2%. $1.0M has traded across 13 outcomes.
The field
Three months of it
- Carlos Ulberg 95%
- Magomed Ankalaev 2%
- Volkan Oezdemir 0.6%
- Jamahal Hill 0.6%
- Bogdan Guskov 0.6%
Show the numbers
| Date | Carlos Ulberg | Magomed Ankalaev | Volkan Oezdemir | Jamahal Hill | Bogdan Guskov |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| August 13, 2026 | 91.0% | 5.9% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| August 20, 2026 | 91.0% | 6.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| August 27, 2026 | 91.5% | 5.7% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| September 4, 2026 | 89.5% | 6.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| September 11, 2026 | 91.0% | 5.9% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| September 18, 2026 | 92.0% | 3.6% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.8% |
| September 25, 2026 | 89.0% | 4.2% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.8% |
| October 3, 2026 | 91.5% | 4.3% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.8% |
| October 10, 2026 | 92.0% | 5.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.9% |
| October 18, 2026 | 92.0% | 3.4% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.9% |
| October 27, 2026 | 92.0% | 4.3% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.9% |
| November 4, 2026 | 94.5% | 3.1% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.8% |
| November 11, 2026 | 95.0% | 2.3% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.6% |
Quick answers
- What are the odds for Carlos Ulberg in "Who will be UFC Light Heavyweight champion at the end of 2026?"?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 95% as of November 11, 2026, up 1 points from a week earlier. A 95 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- What are the odds for Magomed Ankalaev in "Who will be UFC Light Heavyweight champion at the end of 2026?"?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 2% as of November 11, 2026, down 1 points from a week earlier. A 2 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- What are the odds for Volkan Oezdemir in "Who will be UFC Light Heavyweight champion at the end of 2026?"?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 1% as of November 11, 2026. A 1 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- How are these odds calculated?
- They are the YES price of each contract on Polymarket: the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the spread is 10 cents or less, otherwise the last trade. Prices are fetched from Polymarket's public data and this page shows when.
How this one gets decided
This market will resolve according to the official UFC Light Heavyweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count. If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).