Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by...?
As of November 11, 2026, the favorite is December 31, 2027 at 24%, ahead of June 30, 2027 at 13%. $1.2M has traded across 3 outcomes. The biggest move this week: December 31, 2027, −19 pts.
The field
Three months of it
- December 31, 2027 26%
- June 30, 2027 13%
- December 31, 2026 3%
Show the numbers
| Date | December 31, 2027 | June 30, 2027 | December 31, 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| August 13, 2026 | 68.5% | 54.0% | 7.1% |
| August 20, 2026 | 68.0% | 53.5% | 3.6% |
| August 27, 2026 | 67.5% | 53.5% | 4.8% |
| September 3, 2026 | 67.0% | 53.5% | 4.0% |
| September 10, 2026 | 66.5% | 53.0% | 5.7% |
| September 17, 2026 | 66.0% | 54.0% | 3.8% |
| September 24, 2026 | 69.0% | 46.5% | 4.3% |
| October 1, 2026 | 69.5% | 47.0% | 2.4% |
| October 8, 2026 | 69.5% | 31.5% | 3.5% |
| October 16, 2026 | 45.5% | 26.5% | 1.7% |
| October 26, 2026 | 31.0% | 18.0% | 7.6% |
| November 5, 2026 | 13.0% | 15.0% | 4.3% |
| November 11, 2026 | 26.0% | 13.0% | 2.7% |
Quick answers
- What are the odds for December 31, 2027 in "Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by...?"?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 24% as of November 11, 2026, down 19 points from a week earlier. A 24 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- What are the odds for June 30, 2027 in "Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by...?"?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 13% as of November 11, 2026, down 2 points from a week earlier. A 13 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- What are the odds for December 31, 2026 in "Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by...?"?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 3% as of November 11, 2026, down 3 points from a week earlier. A 3 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- How are these odds calculated?
- They are the YES price of each contract on Polymarket: the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the spread is 10 cents or less, otherwise the last trade. Prices are fetched from Polymarket's public data and this page shows when.
How this one gets decided
If the Doge-1 12U Lunar Cube satellite successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the satellite with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.