Who will announce Presidential run before 2027?
As of November 11, 2026, the favorite is Rahm Emanuel at 27%, ahead of Andy Beshear at 10%. $1.4M has traded across 71 outcomes. The biggest move this week: Raphael Warnock, −28 pts.
The field
Three months of it
- Rahm Emanuel 27%
- Andy Beshear 10%
- Gavin Newsom 9%
- Tulsi Gabbard 8%
- Raphael Warnock 6%
Show the numbers
| Date | Rahm Emanuel | Andy Beshear | Gavin Newsom | Tulsi Gabbard | Raphael Warnock |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| August 13, 2026 | 10.0% | 10.5% | 13.5% | 2.1% | 7.0% |
| August 20, 2026 | 9.0% | 7.5% | 12.5% | 1.9% | 7.0% |
| August 27, 2026 | 10.0% | 6.5% | 12.5% | 2.1% | 7.5% |
| September 3, 2026 | 10.5% | 6.5% | 12.0% | 2.1% | 7.5% |
| September 10, 2026 | 5.0% | 5.5% | 13.0% | 1.9% | 7.5% |
| September 17, 2026 | 3.5% | 0.4% | 12.5% | 2.1% | 7.5% |
| September 24, 2026 | 6.7% | 1.1% | 13.5% | 2.0% | 7.5% |
| October 1, 2026 | 7.8% | 1.1% | 13.5% | 1.9% | 11.0% |
| October 8, 2026 | 10.3% | 10.2% | 13.0% | 1.9% | 9.5% |
| October 16, 2026 | 26.1% | 7.4% | 14.5% | 2.1% | 9.5% |
| October 25, 2026 | 19.2% | 10.3% | 14.0% | 2.1% | 9.5% |
| November 4, 2026 | 33.8% | 34.4% | 6.5% | 11.2% | 34.5% |
| November 11, 2026 | 27.0% | 10.0% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 6.0% |
Quick answers
- What are the odds for Rahm Emanuel in "Who will announce Presidential run before 2027?"?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 27% as of November 11, 2026, down 7 points from a week earlier. A 27 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- What are the odds for Andy Beshear in "Who will announce Presidential run before 2027?"?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 10% as of November 11, 2026, down 24 points from a week earlier. A 10 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- What are the odds for Gavin Newsom in "Who will announce Presidential run before 2027?"?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 9% as of November 11, 2026, up 2 points from a week earlier. A 9 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- How are these odds calculated?
- They are the YES price of each contract on Polymarket: the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the spread is 10 cents or less, otherwise the last trade. Prices are fetched from Polymarket's public data and this page shows when.
How this one gets decided
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual officially announces that they are running for U.S. President in the 2028 United States presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement by the listed individual will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually filed a nomination to run, or whether they actually file a nomination to run in the future. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individual (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.