How high will inflation get in 2026?
As of November 11, 2026, the closest-to-even rung is "Above 4.5%" at 10%. The ladder has 8 price levels and $1.6M in total volume. The biggest move this week: Above 4.5%, −9 pts.
The field
Three months of it
- Above 10% 2%
- Above 8% 2%
- Above 6% 2%
- Above 5% 5%
- Above 4.5% 10%
Show the numbers
| Date | Above 10% | Above 8% | Above 6% | Above 5% | Above 4.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| August 13, 2026 | 3.4% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 6.0% | 19.5% |
| August 20, 2026 | 2.8% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 8.0% | 13.5% |
| August 27, 2026 | 2.7% | 3.7% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 12.5% |
| September 3, 2026 | 2.9% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 7.0% | 11.5% |
| September 10, 2026 | 2.8% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 7.5% | 10.5% |
| September 17, 2026 | 2.9% | 3.5% | 5.4% | 8.5% | 19.0% |
| September 24, 2026 | 2.8% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 8.5% | 17.5% |
| October 1, 2026 | 2.8% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 8.5% | 16.5% |
| October 8, 2026 | 2.5% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 7.5% | 12.0% |
| October 16, 2026 | 2.5% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 8.5% | 15.5% |
| October 26, 2026 | 2.5% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 9.0% | 14.5% |
| November 5, 2026 | 1.8% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 6.5% | 13.0% |
| November 11, 2026 | 1.6% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 4.5% | 9.5% |
Quick answers
- What are the odds: Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 10% as of November 11, 2026, down 9 points from a week earlier. A 10 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- What are the odds: Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 5% as of November 11, 2026, down 2 points from a week earlier. A 5 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- What are the odds: Will inflation reach more than 8% in 2026?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 2% as of November 11, 2026, down 0 points from a week earlier. A 2 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- How are these odds calculated?
- They are the YES price of each contract on Polymarket: the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the spread is 10 cents or less, otherwise the last trade. Prices are fetched from Polymarket's public data and this page shows when.
How this one gets decided
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by greater than the listed percent over the 12 month period ending with any month in 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index reports released for each month of 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm). Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. This market may not resolve to "No" until the December 2026 report is issued. Once the December 2026 report is issued, any revisions to previously released CPI figures will not be counted toward this market's resolution. If the CPI report for December 2026 is not issued by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on CPI figures which have already been made available by the BLS. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release which reports inflation over 12 month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.