Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?
As of November 11, 2026, Polymarket traders put the chance of "Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?" at 13%, down 25 points over the past week. $2.7M has traded on this market. The biggest move this week: the YES price, −25 pts.
Three months of it
Show the numbers
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| August 13, 2026 | 25.0% |
| August 20, 2026 | 22.5% |
| August 27, 2026 | 20.5% |
| September 4, 2026 | 23.5% |
| September 11, 2026 | 24.5% |
| September 18, 2026 | 23.5% |
| September 25, 2026 | 25.0% |
| October 3, 2026 | 21.5% |
| October 10, 2026 | 17.5% |
| October 18, 2026 | 24.5% |
| October 27, 2026 | 26.5% |
| November 4, 2026 | 44.5% |
| November 11, 2026 | 12.5% |
Quick answers
- What are the odds: Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 13% as of November 11, 2026, down 25 points from a week earlier. A 13 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- How are these odds calculated?
- They are the YES price of each contract on Polymarket: the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the spread is 10 cents or less, otherwise the last trade. Prices are fetched from Polymarket's public data and this page shows when.
How this one gets decided
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pete Hegseth ceases to be U.S. Secretary of Defense for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Pete Hegseth's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Pete Hegseth and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.