Culture / What the market thinks

Human moon landing in 2026?

As of November 11, 2026, Polymarket traders put the chance of "Human moon landing in 2026?" at 0.5%, unchanged over the past week. $2.0M has traded on this market.

Polymarket data, fetched Nov 11, 2026, 04:27 UTC / $2.0M traded / $575 in the last 24 hours / closes January 1, 2027

Three months of it

Human moon landing in 2026?: implied probability over 90 days0%3%5%8%10%Aug 13, 2026Sep 27, 2026Nov 11, 2026
The YES price moved from 1% to 0.4% over 90 days (−1 pts). High: 3% on September 16, 2026. Low: 0.4% on November 11, 2026.
Show the numbers
DateYes
August 13, 20261.1%
August 20, 20260.9%
August 27, 20260.8%
September 4, 20260.8%
September 11, 20261.5%
September 18, 20261.7%
September 25, 20260.9%
October 3, 20261.1%
October 10, 20261.7%
October 18, 20261.6%
October 27, 20261.3%
November 4, 20260.9%
November 11, 20260.4%

Quick answers

What are the odds: Human moon landing in 2026?
Polymarket traders priced it at 0.5% as of November 11, 2026, down 0 points from a week earlier. A 0 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
How are these odds calculated?
They are the YES price of each contract on Polymarket: the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the spread is 10 cents or less, otherwise the last trade. Prices are fetched from Polymarket's public data and this page shows when.

How this one gets decided

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any human-crewed mission lands on the moon between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A touchdown of the spacecraft with humans aboard will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of technical complications. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

The market on Polymarket