What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?
As of November 11, 2026, the favorite is Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year) at 15%, ahead of Dilution of Iran's Uranium at 13%. $1.7M has traded across 6 outcomes. The biggest move this week: Iran Reconstruction Funding, −7 pts.
The field
Three months of it
- Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year) 14%
- Dilution of Iran's Uranium 13%
- ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) 12%
- 1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium 8%
- Iran Reconstruction Funding 7%
Show the numbers
| Date | Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year) | Dilution of Iran's Uranium | ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) | 1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium | Iran Reconstruction Funding |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| August 13, 2026 | 20.0% | 20.5% | 18.0% | 15.5% | 26.5% |
| August 20, 2026 | 9.5% | 9.5% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 18.5% |
| August 27, 2026 | 10.5% | 11.0% | 8.5% | 10.5% | 10.5% |
| September 4, 2026 | 9.5% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 9.0% | 11.0% |
| September 11, 2026 | 10.5% | 9.0% | 8.5% | 10.5% | 11.5% |
| September 18, 2026 | 12.5% | 8.5% | 9.0% | 11.5% | 13.5% |
| September 25, 2026 | 14.5% | 15.0% | 15.0% | 14.5% | 15.5% |
| October 3, 2026 | 14.5% | 15.5% | 14.5% | 9.5% | 9.5% |
| October 10, 2026 | 13.5% | 16.5% | 13.5% | 9.5% | 8.5% |
| October 18, 2026 | 14.5% | 12.0% | 12.5% | 9.5% | 9.0% |
| October 27, 2026 | 14.5% | 12.5% | 13.5% | 10.5% | 6.5% |
| November 4, 2026 | 15.5% | 18.5% | 13.5% | 13.5% | 13.5% |
| November 11, 2026 | 14.5% | 12.5% | 12.0% | 7.5% | 6.5% |
Quick answers
- What are the odds for Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year) in "What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?"?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 15% as of November 11, 2026, down 1 points from a week earlier. A 15 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- What are the odds for Dilution of Iran's Uranium in "What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?"?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 13% as of November 11, 2026, down 6 points from a week earlier. A 13 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- What are the odds for ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) in "What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?"?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 12% as of November 11, 2026, down 1 points from a week earlier. A 12 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- How are these odds calculated?
- They are the YES price of each contract on Polymarket: the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the spread is 10 cents or less, otherwise the last trade. Prices are fetched from Polymarket's public data and this page shows when.
How this one gets decided
This market resolves to “Yes” if a written diplomatic instrument between the United States and Iran that establishes a specific, percentage cap on the purity level to which Iran may enrich uranium, committed to for at least one year, has been mutually signed or otherwise formally adopted by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves to “No.” The instrument must specifically include a percentage cap that operates as a general ceiling on the level to which Iran may enrich uranium for any purpose. Vague, or non-specific language regarding the level of Iranian uranium enrichment which does not establish a specific percentage-cap ceiling on all Iranian enrichment (e.g., “lower levels”, “civilian grade”, “maintain the status quo”) will not qualify. Caps that directly mandate a specific percentage cap on enrichment through reference to a publicly-recognized benchmark percentage (e.g., JCPOA-levels), however, will qualify, even if they do not specifically reference the relevant numeric percentage itself. An Iranian commitment to end all enrichment of uranium qualifies as a cap, as it establishes a 0% cap on Iranian uranium enrichment. A qualifying enrichment cap must