Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by...?
As of November 11, 2026, the favorite is December 31, 2027 at 15%, ahead of June 30, 2027 at 14%. $2.7M has traded across 5 outcomes. The biggest move this week: December 31, 2027, +8 pts.
The field
Three months of it
- December 31, 2027 21%
- June 30, 2027 14%
- December 31, 2026 5%
Show the numbers
| Date | December 31, 2027 | June 30, 2027 | December 31, 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| October 21, 2026 | 46.0% | 45.5% | 1.4% |
| October 23, 2026 | 28.0% | 7.5% | 4.0% |
| October 25, 2026 | 16.5% | 7.5% | 3.6% |
| October 27, 2026 | 11.0% | 8.0% | 3.8% |
| October 28, 2026 | 19.0% | 7.0% | 3.7% |
| October 30, 2026 | 19.5% | 8.0% | 4.1% |
| November 1, 2026 | 18.5% | 8.5% | 4.3% |
| November 2, 2026 | 17.5% | 8.5% | 3.0% |
| November 4, 2026 | 13.0% | 8.5% | 3.0% |
| November 6, 2026 | 14.5% | 8.5% | 2.9% |
| November 7, 2026 | 16.0% | 8.5% | 2.5% |
| November 9, 2026 | 15.5% | 12.5% | 2.4% |
| November 10, 2026 | 22.5% | 16.5% | 6.6% |
| November 11, 2026 | 20.5% | 14.0% | 5.2% |
Quick answers
- What are the odds for December 31, 2027 in "Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by...?"?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 15% as of November 11, 2026, up 8 points from a week earlier. A 15 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- What are the odds for June 30, 2027 in "Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by...?"?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 14% as of November 11, 2026, up 6 points from a week earlier. A 14 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- What are the odds for December 31, 2026 in "Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by...?"?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 5% as of November 11, 2026, up 2 points from a week earlier. A 5 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- How are these odds calculated?
- They are the YES price of each contract on Polymarket: the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the spread is 10 cents or less, otherwise the last trade. Prices are fetched from Polymarket's public data and this page shows when.
How this one gets decided
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a deal in which Ukraine agrees to formally recognize Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrainian territory is reached between the Russian Federation and Ukraine by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement. If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. An agreement by Ukraine formally recognizing Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrainian territory for any amount of time will count. An agreement by Ukraine formally recognizing Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrainian territory as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995, “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia, which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement, is an example of a qualifying agreement. An official unilateral pledge by