Will US withdraw from NATO by...?
As of November 11, 2026, the favorite is December 31 at 0.7%. $6.4M has traded across 4 outcomes.
The field
Three months of it
Show the numbers
| Date | December 31 |
|---|---|
| August 13, 2026 | 3.1% |
| August 20, 2026 | 2.9% |
| August 27, 2026 | 2.7% |
| September 4, 2026 | 2.3% |
| September 11, 2026 | 1.8% |
| September 18, 2026 | 1.8% |
| September 25, 2026 | 1.8% |
| October 3, 2026 | 3.3% |
| October 10, 2026 | 2.6% |
| October 18, 2026 | 1.5% |
| October 27, 2026 | 1.4% |
| November 4, 2026 | 0.7% |
| November 11, 2026 | 0.7% |
Quick answers
- What are the odds for December 31 in "Will US withdraw from NATO by...?"?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 0.7% as of November 11, 2026, down 0 points from a week earlier. A 1 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- How are these odds calculated?
- They are the YES price of each contract on Polymarket: the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the spread is 10 cents or less, otherwise the last trade. Prices are fetched from Polymarket's public data and this page shows when.
How this one gets decided
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally initiates a withdrawal from NATO or provides an official notice of denunciation to NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty. Any action meeting these criteria will qualify for a “Yes” resolution regardless of if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions. The U.S.'s exit from NATO’s integrated military command structure will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". The resolution source will be official information from the US government and NATO, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.