Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by...?
As of November 11, 2026, the favorite is December 31, 2027 at 38%, ahead of June 30, 2027 at 21%. $3.2M has traded across 7 outcomes.
The field
Three months of it
- December 31, 2027 38%
- June 30, 2027 21%
- March 31, 2027 5%
- December 31, 2026 3%
- November 30, 2026 1%
Show the numbers
| Date | December 31, 2027 | June 30, 2027 | March 31, 2027 | December 31, 2026 | November 30, 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 5, 2026 | 27.5% | 20.0% | 52.0% | 8.5% | 4.3% |
| October 8, 2026 | 39.5% | 24.5% | 20.5% | 6.5% | 4.2% |
| October 11, 2026 | 47.0% | 42.0% | 21.0% | 6.5% | 3.1% |
| October 14, 2026 | 45.5% | 35.5% | 20.5% | 5.5% | 4.0% |
| October 17, 2026 | 41.5% | 29.5% | 19.0% | 4.5% | 3.1% |
| October 20, 2026 | 42.0% | 31.5% | 18.5% | 5.5% | 3.5% |
| October 23, 2026 | 39.5% | 24.5% | 10.0% | 5.5% | 3.2% |
| October 27, 2026 | 39.5% | 30.5% | 11.5% | 6.5% | 2.1% |
| October 30, 2026 | 42.5% | 30.5% | 14.0% | 6.5% | 1.8% |
| November 2, 2026 | 38.0% | 24.5% | 11.5% | 3.6% | 1.8% |
| November 5, 2026 | 36.0% | 19.0% | 5.9% | 3.2% | 1.1% |
| November 8, 2026 | 37.5% | 21.5% | 5.9% | 2.4% | 1.1% |
| November 11, 2026 | 37.5% | 20.5% | 5.5% | 2.6% | 1.1% |
| November 11, 2026 | 37.5% | 21.0% | 5.5% | 2.6% | 1.1% |
Quick answers
- What are the odds for December 31, 2027 in "Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by...?"?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 38% as of November 11, 2026, down 1 points from a week earlier. A 38 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- What are the odds for June 30, 2027 in "Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by...?"?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 21% as of November 11, 2026, down 2 points from a week earlier. A 21 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- What are the odds for March 31, 2027 in "Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by...?"?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 5% as of November 11, 2026, down 2 points from a week earlier. A 5 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- How are these odds calculated?
- They are the YES price of each contract on Polymarket: the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the spread is 10 cents or less, otherwise the last trade. Prices are fetched from Polymarket's public data and this page shows when.
How this one gets decided
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Friedrich Merz ceases to be the Chancellor of Germany for any period of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Friedrich Merz's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of Germany, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.