Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by...?
As of November 11, 2026, the favorite is June 30, 2027 at 20%, ahead of December 31 at 4%. $5.0M has traded across 6 outcomes. The biggest move this week: June 30, 2027, −33 pts.
The field
Three months of it
- June 30, 2027 20%
- December 31 4%
Show the numbers
| Date | June 30, 2027 | December 31 |
|---|---|---|
| August 13, 2026 | 37.5% | 4.5% |
| August 20, 2026 | 34.0% | 5.5% |
| August 27, 2026 | 34.5% | 5.5% |
| September 3, 2026 | 38.5% | 5.5% |
| September 10, 2026 | 39.5% | 5.5% |
| September 17, 2026 | 38.5% | 5.5% |
| September 24, 2026 | 40.5% | 9.0% |
| October 1, 2026 | 38.5% | 6.5% |
| October 8, 2026 | 39.5% | 12.5% |
| October 16, 2026 | 43.5% | 13.5% |
| October 25, 2026 | 42.0% | 22.5% |
| November 4, 2026 | 52.5% | 20.5% |
| November 11, 2026 | 19.5% | 4.0% |
Quick answers
- What are the odds for June 30, 2027 in "Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by...?"?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 20% as of November 11, 2026, down 33 points from a week earlier. A 20 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- What are the odds for December 31 in "Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by...?"?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 4% as of November 11, 2026, down 16 points from a week earlier. A 4 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- How are these odds calculated?
- They are the YES price of each contract on Polymarket: the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the spread is 10 cents or less, otherwise the last trade. Prices are fetched from Polymarket's public data and this page shows when.
How this one gets decided
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Samuel Alito announces that he will retire from his position as Associate Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The announced timing of his retirement may be immediate, at the end of the current Supreme Court term, or at any point in the future. Any qualifying announcement from Alito will count for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced retirement goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official announcements from Alito or one of his official representatives.