Trump out as President before 2027?
As of November 11, 2026, Polymarket traders put the chance of "Trump out as President before 2027?" at 2%, down 2 points over the past week. $14.6M has traded on this market.
Three months of it
Show the numbers
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| August 13, 2026 | 6.5% |
| August 20, 2026 | 5.5% |
| August 27, 2026 | 6.5% |
| September 4, 2026 | 5.5% |
| September 11, 2026 | 5.5% |
| September 18, 2026 | 5.5% |
| September 25, 2026 | 4.5% |
| October 3, 2026 | 3.8% |
| October 10, 2026 | 4.2% |
| October 18, 2026 | 4.0% |
| October 27, 2026 | 4.3% |
| November 4, 2026 | 3.7% |
| November 11, 2026 | 2.1% |
Quick answers
- What are the odds: Trump out as President before 2027?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 2% as of November 11, 2026, down 2 points from a week earlier. A 2 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- How are these odds calculated?
- They are the YES price of each contract on Polymarket: the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the spread is 10 cents or less, otherwise the last trade. Prices are fetched from Polymarket's public data and this page shows when.
How this one gets decided
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count. A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.