Which party wins 2028 US Presidential Election?
As of November 11, 2026, the favorite is Democratic at 68%, ahead of Republican at 33%. $2.7M has traded across 2 outcomes.
The field
Three months of it
- Democratic 68%
- Republican 33%
Show the numbers
| Date | Democratic | Republican |
|---|---|---|
| August 13, 2026 | 58.5% | 40.5% |
| August 20, 2026 | 58.5% | 41.5% |
| August 27, 2026 | 57.5% | 40.5% |
| September 4, 2026 | 59.5% | 40.5% |
| September 11, 2026 | 60.5% | 38.5% |
| September 18, 2026 | 63.5% | 35.0% |
| September 25, 2026 | 66.5% | 34.5% |
| October 3, 2026 | 64.5% | 34.5% |
| October 10, 2026 | 63.5% | 34.5% |
| October 18, 2026 | 63.5% | 34.5% |
| October 27, 2026 | 64.5% | 34.5% |
| November 4, 2026 | 67.5% | 30.5% |
| November 11, 2026 | 67.5% | 32.5% |
Quick answers
- What are the odds for Democratic in "Which party wins 2028 US Presidential Election?"?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 68% as of November 11, 2026. A 68 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- What are the odds for Republican in "Which party wins 2028 US Presidential Election?"?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 33% as of November 11, 2026, up 2 points from a week earlier. A 33 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- How are these odds calculated?
- They are the YES price of each contract on Polymarket: the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the spread is 10 cents or less, otherwise the last trade. Prices are fetched from Polymarket's public data and this page shows when.
How this one gets decided
The 2028 United States presidential election will be held on Tuesday, November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the political party whose candidate is elected the next President of the United States in the 2028 election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same party. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same party by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.