Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
As of November 11, 2026, the favorite is Gadi Eizenkot at 61%, ahead of Benjamin Netanyahu at 23%. $91.3M has traded across 22 outcomes. The biggest move this week: Gadi Eizenkot, +13 pts.
The field
Three months of it
- Gadi Eizenkot 61%
- Benjamin Netanyahu 23%
- Avigdor Lieberman 5%
- Naftali Bennett 3%
- Yossi Cohen 0.3%
Show the numbers
| Date | Gadi Eizenkot | Benjamin Netanyahu | Avigdor Lieberman | Naftali Bennett | Yossi Cohen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| August 13, 2026 | 53.1% | 30.5% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 0.1% |
| August 20, 2026 | 55.8% | 27.5% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 0.1% |
| August 27, 2026 | 51.4% | 29.5% | 4.0% | 7.5% | 0.1% |
| September 4, 2026 | 49.3% | 29.5% | 6.3% | 8.5% | 0.4% |
| September 11, 2026 | 54.8% | 27.5% | 4.3% | 6.5% | 0.3% |
| September 18, 2026 | 51.0% | 28.5% | 4.6% | 8.5% | 0.3% |
| September 25, 2026 | 52.3% | 29.5% | 2.7% | 10.5% | 0.3% |
| October 3, 2026 | 46.8% | 33.5% | 2.2% | 14.5% | 0.1% |
| October 10, 2026 | 42.4% | 35.5% | 2.1% | 10.5% | 0.1% |
| October 18, 2026 | 54.0% | 27.5% | 2.1% | 13.5% | 0.1% |
| October 27, 2026 | 54.8% | 26.5% | 1.8% | 7.0% | 0.1% |
| November 4, 2026 | 47.4% | 30.0% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 0.7% |
| November 11, 2026 | 60.7% | 23.4% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 0.3% |
Quick answers
- What are the odds for Gadi Eizenkot in "Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?"?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 61% as of November 11, 2026, up 13 points from a week earlier. A 61 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- What are the odds for Benjamin Netanyahu in "Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?"?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 23% as of November 11, 2026, down 7 points from a week earlier. A 23 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- What are the odds for Avigdor Lieberman in "Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?"?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 5% as of November 11, 2026, up 0 points from a week earlier. A 5 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- How are these odds calculated?
- They are the YES price of each contract on Polymarket: the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the spread is 10 cents or less, otherwise the last trade. Prices are fetched from Polymarket's public data and this page shows when.
How this one gets decided
Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.