Will Hezbollah disarm by...?
As of November 11, 2026, the favorite is December 31 at 2%. $3.1M has traded across 3 outcomes.
The field
Three months of it
Show the numbers
| Date | December 31 |
|---|---|
| August 13, 2026 | 12.5% |
| August 20, 2026 | 10.5% |
| August 27, 2026 | 7.5% |
| September 4, 2026 | 8.5% |
| September 11, 2026 | 9.5% |
| September 18, 2026 | 9.5% |
| September 25, 2026 | 7.0% |
| October 3, 2026 | 5.5% |
| October 10, 2026 | 8.0% |
| October 18, 2026 | 7.5% |
| October 27, 2026 | 5.5% |
| November 4, 2026 | 2.6% |
| November 11, 2026 | 2.4% |
Quick answers
- What are the odds for December 31 in "Will Hezbollah disarm by...?"?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 2% as of November 11, 2026, down 0 points from a week earlier. A 2 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- How are these odds calculated?
- They are the YES price of each contract on Polymarket: the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the spread is 10 cents or less, otherwise the last trade. Prices are fetched from Polymarket's public data and this page shows when.
How this one gets decided
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah officially announces it will disarm in Lebanon by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify. For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon. Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process. Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered. Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarm