Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by...?
As of November 11, 2026, the favorite is December 31, 2027 at 39%, ahead of June 30, 2027 at 34%. $3.1M has traded across 3 outcomes. The biggest move this week: December 31, 2027, +9 pts.
The field
Three months of it
- December 31, 2027 39%
- June 30, 2027 28%
- December 31, 2026 8%
Show the numbers
| Date | December 31, 2027 | June 30, 2027 | December 31, 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| November 3, 2026 | 28.0% | 23.0% | 10.5% |
| November 4, 2026 | 30.0% | 23.5% | 8.5% |
| November 5, 2026 | 31.0% | 26.0% | 7.5% |
| November 5, 2026 | 31.0% | 26.0% | 8.5% |
| November 6, 2026 | 30.5% | 25.0% | 7.5% |
| November 6, 2026 | 31.0% | 26.5% | 7.5% |
| November 7, 2026 | 33.0% | 25.0% | 8.5% |
| November 8, 2026 | 36.5% | 25.0% | 7.5% |
| November 8, 2026 | 32.5% | 26.5% | 7.5% |
| November 9, 2026 | 33.5% | 25.0% | 7.5% |
| November 9, 2026 | 33.5% | 25.0% | 7.5% |
| November 10, 2026 | 38.5% | 20.0% | 6.5% |
| November 10, 2026 | 37.5% | 21.0% | 7.5% |
| November 11, 2026 | 37.5% | 27.5% | 7.5% |
| November 11, 2026 | 39.0% | 27.5% | 7.5% |
Quick answers
- What are the odds for December 31, 2027 in "Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by...?"?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 39% as of November 11, 2026, up 9 points from a week earlier. A 39 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- What are the odds for June 30, 2027 in "Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by...?"?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 34% as of November 11, 2026, up 4 points from a week earlier. A 34 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- What are the odds for December 31, 2026 in "Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by...?"?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 8% as of November 11, 2026, down 1 points from a week earlier. A 8 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- How are these odds calculated?
- They are the YES price of each contract on Polymarket: the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the spread is 10 cents or less, otherwise the last trade. Prices are fetched from Polymarket's public data and this page shows when.
How this one gets decided
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not. Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify. The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted. The primary re