Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by...?
As of November 11, 2026, the favorite is December 31 at 2%. $14.3M has traded across 4 outcomes.
The field
Three months of it
Show the numbers
| Date | December 31 |
|---|---|
| August 13, 2026 | 4.5% |
| August 20, 2026 | 3.5% |
| August 27, 2026 | 3.9% |
| September 4, 2026 | 3.6% |
| September 11, 2026 | 2.6% |
| September 18, 2026 | 3.4% |
| September 25, 2026 | 2.8% |
| October 3, 2026 | 2.9% |
| October 10, 2026 | 3.0% |
| October 18, 2026 | 3.0% |
| October 27, 2026 | 3.6% |
| November 4, 2026 | 2.8% |
| November 11, 2026 | 1.6% |
Quick answers
- What are the odds for December 31 in "Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by...?"?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 2% as of November 11, 2026, down 1 points from a week earlier. A 2 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- How are these odds calculated?
- They are the YES price of each contract on Polymarket: the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the spread is 10 cents or less, otherwise the last trade. Prices are fetched from Polymarket's public data and this page shows when.
How this one gets decided
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela between September 6 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Venezuela or the United States as of September 6, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.