Politics / What the market thinks

Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?

As of November 11, 2026, Polymarket traders put the chance of "Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?" at 2%, unchanged over the past week. $11.0M has traded on this market.

Polymarket data, fetched Nov 11, 2026, 04:27 UTC / $11.0M traded / $503 in the last 24 hours / closes January 1, 2027

Three months of it

Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?: implied probability over 90 days0%3%5%8%10%Aug 13, 2026Sep 27, 2026Nov 11, 2026
The YES price moved from 6% to 2% over 90 days (−4 pts). High: 10% on September 19, 2026. Low: 1% on September 23, 2026.
Show the numbers
DateYes
August 13, 20265.5%
August 20, 20265.5%
August 27, 20266.5%
September 4, 20266.5%
September 11, 20266.5%
September 18, 20264.0%
September 25, 20262.9%
October 3, 20263.3%
October 10, 20263.1%
October 18, 20262.9%
October 27, 20263.3%
November 4, 20261.7%
November 11, 20261.6%

Quick answers

What are the odds: Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
Polymarket traders priced it at 2% as of November 11, 2026, down 0 points from a week earlier. A 2 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
How are these odds calculated?
They are the YES price of each contract on Polymarket: the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the spread is 10 cents or less, otherwise the last trade. Prices are fetched from Polymarket's public data and this page shows when.

How this one gets decided

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States acquires control of any land territory that is part of Greenland by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Only the transfer of sovereignty, or the acquisition of primary or exclusive jurisdiction or control qualifies. 1. Transfer of Sovereignty: This will qualify if a binding agreement or legal instrument results in a defined area of Greenland coming under the formal sovereignty of the U.S. (e.g., incorporated as a U.S. state, territory, possession, or other U.S. political classification), even if the effective date occurs after the market deadline. 2. Acquisition of Primary or Exclusive Jurisdiction or Control: This will qualify if a binding agreement or legal instrument establishes a defined area in Greenland in which the U.S. has primary or exclusive jurisdiction or control over the territory, such that the ordinary legal authority of Denmark and Greenland do not apply,except by U.S. permission. Such agreements or instruments will qualify even if the effective date occurs after the market deadline. 3. Use of Force: If the U.S. acquires primary or exclusive jurisdiction or control o

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