Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?
As of November 11, 2026, the favorite is December 31, 2027 at 70%, ahead of November 30, 2027 at 69%. $10.7M has traded across 18 outcomes.
The field
Three months of it
- December 31, 2027 70%
- November 30, 2027 69%
- October 31, 2027 66%
- September 30, 2027 63%
- August 31, 2027 60%
Show the numbers
| Date | December 31, 2027 | November 30, 2027 | October 31, 2027 | September 30, 2027 | August 31, 2027 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 7, 2026 | 64.5% | 65.5% | 53.5% | 49.5% | 47.0% |
| September 12, 2026 | 69.0% | 66.5% | 65.5% | 64.0% | 64.0% |
| September 17, 2026 | 69.5% | 65.5% | 63.5% | 63.5% | 59.5% |
| September 22, 2026 | 71.0% | 69.5% | 65.5% | 64.5% | 60.5% |
| September 27, 2026 | 70.5% | 70.0% | 66.0% | 64.5% | 60.5% |
| October 2, 2026 | 68.5% | 64.5% | 60.5% | 58.5% | 57.0% |
| October 7, 2026 | 69.5% | 67.5% | 63.0% | 61.5% | 57.0% |
| October 13, 2026 | 66.5% | 66.5% | 63.5% | 61.0% | 58.0% |
| October 19, 2026 | 68.5% | 63.5% | 61.0% | 57.5% | 54.5% |
| October 25, 2026 | 70.5% | 68.0% | 66.0% | 63.5% | 60.5% |
| November 1, 2026 | 69.5% | 67.5% | 64.5% | 64.0% | 63.0% |
| November 6, 2026 | 69.0% | 67.5% | 63.5% | 64.0% | 63.5% |
| November 11, 2026 | 69.5% | 68.5% | 66.0% | 62.5% | 60.0% |
Quick answers
- What are the odds for December 31, 2027 in "Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?"?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 70% as of November 11, 2026, down 1 points from a week earlier. A 70 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- What are the odds for November 30, 2027 in "Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?"?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 69% as of November 11, 2026, up 1 points from a week earlier. A 69 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- What are the odds for October 31, 2027 in "Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?"?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 66% as of November 11, 2026, up 2 points from a week earlier. A 66 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- How are these odds calculated?
- They are the YES price of each contract on Polymarket: the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the spread is 10 cents or less, otherwise the last trade. Prices are fetched from Polymarket's public data and this page shows when.
How this one gets decided
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries. A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify. Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement. Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or c