Who will be UFC Middleweight champion at the end of 2026?
As of November 11, 2026, the favorite is Sean Strickland at 92%, ahead of Anthony Hernandez at 0.4%. $1.0M has traded across 12 outcomes.
The field
Three months of it
- Sean Strickland 92%
- Anthony Hernandez 0.4%
- Khamzat Chimaev 0.3%
- Nassourdine Imavov 0.3%
- Caio Borralho 0.3%
Show the numbers
| Date | Sean Strickland | Anthony Hernandez | Khamzat Chimaev | Nassourdine Imavov | Caio Borralho |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| August 13, 2026 | 58.8% | 0.1% | 16.5% | 27.8% | 0.1% |
| August 20, 2026 | 54.4% | 0.1% | 18.0% | 16.4% | 0.1% |
| August 27, 2026 | 59.6% | 0.1% | 16.5% | 20.5% | 0.1% |
| September 3, 2026 | 58.9% | 0.1% | 13.5% | 28.3% | 0.1% |
| September 10, 2026 | 58.3% | 0.1% | 2.1% | 36.9% | 0.1% |
| September 17, 2026 | 56.6% | 0.1% | 2.6% | 35.6% | 0.1% |
| September 24, 2026 | 63.4% | 0.1% | 1.4% | 36.3% | 0.1% |
| October 1, 2026 | 59.3% | 0.1% | 1.6% | 39.9% | 0.1% |
| October 8, 2026 | 83.5% | 0.1% | 1.3% | 2.5% | 0.1% |
| October 16, 2026 | 89.1% | 0.1% | 1.2% | 2.6% | 0.1% |
| October 26, 2026 | 90.6% | 0.1% | 1.7% | 4.8% | 0.1% |
| November 5, 2026 | 91.2% | 0.1% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| November 11, 2026 | 92.2% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% |
Quick answers
- What are the odds for Sean Strickland in "Who will be UFC Middleweight champion at the end of 2026?"?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 92% as of November 11, 2026, up 3 points from a week earlier. A 92 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- What are the odds for Anthony Hernandez in "Who will be UFC Middleweight champion at the end of 2026?"?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 0.4% as of November 11, 2026, up 0 points from a week earlier. A 0 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- What are the odds for Khamzat Chimaev in "Who will be UFC Middleweight champion at the end of 2026?"?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 0.3% as of November 11, 2026, down 3 points from a week earlier. A 0 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- How are these odds calculated?
- They are the YES price of each contract on Polymarket: the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the spread is 10 cents or less, otherwise the last trade. Prices are fetched from Polymarket's public data and this page shows when.
How this one gets decided
This market will resolve according to the official UFC Middleweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count. If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).