Politics / What the market thinks

Will Alberta join the US?

As of November 11, 2026, Polymarket traders put the chance of "Will Alberta join the US? " at 1%, down 1 points over the past week. $2.2M has traded on this market.

Polymarket data, fetched Nov 11, 2026, 04:27 UTC / $2.2M traded / $1.4K in the last 24 hours / closes January 1, 2027

Three months of it

Will Alberta join the US? : implied probability over 90 days0%3%5%8%10%Aug 13, 2026Sep 27, 2026Nov 11, 2026
The YES price moved from 2% to 1% over 90 days (−1 pts). High: 4% on August 17, 2026. Low: 0.9% on September 22, 2026.
Show the numbers
DateYes
August 13, 20262.2%
August 20, 20262.7%
August 27, 20262.1%
September 4, 20261.8%
September 11, 20262.1%
September 18, 20261.5%
September 25, 20260.9%
October 3, 20261.1%
October 10, 20261.3%
October 18, 20261.8%
October 27, 20261.0%
November 4, 20261.6%
November 11, 20261.1%

Quick answers

What are the odds: Will Alberta join the US?
Polymarket traders priced it at 1% as of November 11, 2026, down 1 points from a week earlier. A 1 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
How are these odds calculated?
They are the YES price of each contract on Polymarket: the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the spread is 10 cents or less, otherwise the last trade. Prices are fetched from Polymarket's public data and this page shows when.

How this one gets decided

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Alberta will come under US sovereignty, or if Alberta officially comes under US sovereignty, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". Sovereignty is defined as the transfer of the majority of the territory of Alberta as of February 6, 2026, currently a Canadian province, to being under the formal governance or jurisdiction of the United States, either as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system. An official announcement made by the United States and Canada that Alberta will come under US sovereignty, within this market's timeframe, will qualify, even if the actual transfer of sovereignty is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. a ratified treaty, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere suggestions, negotiations, or posts on Social Media will not. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the US, Canada, and Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that Alberta has come under U.S. sovereignty will also qualify.

The market on Polymarket