Netanyahu out by...?
As of November 11, 2026, the favorite is June 30, 2027 at 69%, ahead of March 31, 2027 at 66%. $125M has traded across 8 outcomes. The biggest move this week: March 31, 2027, +38 pts.
The field
Three months of it
- June 30, 2027 69%
- March 31, 2027 66%
- December 31 51%
Show the numbers
| Date | June 30, 2027 | March 31, 2027 | December 31 |
|---|---|---|---|
| October 26, 2026 | 85.5% | 70.0% | 40.0% |
| October 28, 2026 | 40.5% | 29.0% | 20.5% |
| October 30, 2026 | 43.5% | 26.0% | 21.5% |
| October 31, 2026 | 32.5% | 26.0% | 21.5% |
| November 1, 2026 | 37.0% | 27.0% | 16.5% |
| November 3, 2026 | 44.0% | 27.0% | 16.5% |
| November 4, 2026 | 41.0% | 28.0% | 19.5% |
| November 5, 2026 | 47.5% | 37.0% | 23.0% |
| November 7, 2026 | 73.5% | 57.0% | 38.5% |
| November 8, 2026 | 69.0% | 68.5% | 47.0% |
| November 9, 2026 | 68.5% | 65.5% | 43.0% |
| November 11, 2026 | 68.5% | 64.0% | 49.0% |
| November 11, 2026 | 68.5% | 66.0% | 50.5% |
Quick answers
- What are the odds for June 30, 2027 in "Netanyahu out by...?"?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 69% as of November 11, 2026, up 28 points from a week earlier. A 69 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- What are the odds for March 31, 2027 in "Netanyahu out by...?"?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 66% as of November 11, 2026, up 38 points from a week earlier. A 66 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- What are the odds for December 31 in "Netanyahu out by...?"?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 51% as of November 11, 2026, up 31 points from a week earlier. A 51 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- How are these odds calculated?
- They are the YES price of each contract on Polymarket: the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the spread is 10 cents or less, otherwise the last trade. Prices are fetched from Polymarket's public data and this page shows when.
How this one gets decided
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Benjamin Netanyahu announces that he will resign as Prime Minister of Israel, or otherwise steps down from/is removed from this position by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Note that an announcement of Benjamin Netanyahu's resignation or removal before the resolution date will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of if/when he actually steps down. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the State of Israel, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.