Ukraine election called by...?
As of November 11, 2026, the favorite is December 31, 2027 at 60%, ahead of June 30, 2027 at 40%. $1.9M has traded across 7 outcomes.
The field
Three months of it
- December 31, 2027 60%
- June 30, 2027 40%
- December 31, 2026 4%
Show the numbers
| Date | December 31, 2027 | June 30, 2027 | December 31, 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| October 27, 2026 | 46.5% | 41.0% | 4.6% |
| October 29, 2026 | 48.0% | 40.0% | 4.1% |
| October 30, 2026 | 52.0% | 46.5% | 3.8% |
| November 1, 2026 | 59.5% | 53.0% | 2.9% |
| November 2, 2026 | 58.0% | 37.5% | 2.8% |
| November 3, 2026 | 60.0% | 37.5% | 2.9% |
| November 4, 2026 | 62.0% | 37.5% | 2.8% |
| November 5, 2026 | 57.0% | 38.0% | 2.9% |
| November 6, 2026 | 66.5% | 29.5% | 6.3% |
| November 8, 2026 | 68.5% | 31.5% | 7.0% |
| November 9, 2026 | 67.0% | 31.5% | 7.2% |
| November 10, 2026 | 58.5% | 40.0% | 4.1% |
| November 11, 2026 | 60.5% | 40.5% | 4.1% |
| November 11, 2026 | 59.5% | 39.5% | 4.0% |
Quick answers
- What are the odds for December 31, 2027 in "Ukraine election called by...?"?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 60% as of November 11, 2026, down 2 points from a week earlier. A 60 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- What are the odds for June 30, 2027 in "Ukraine election called by...?"?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 40% as of November 11, 2026, up 2 points from a week earlier. A 40 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- What are the odds for December 31, 2026 in "Ukraine election called by...?"?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 4% as of November 11, 2026, up 1 points from a week earlier. A 4 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- How are these odds calculated?
- They are the YES price of each contract on Polymarket: the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the spread is 10 cents or less, otherwise the last trade. Prices are fetched from Polymarket's public data and this page shows when.
How this one gets decided
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Ukrainian presidential election is scheduled in 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market is about whether a date for the next Ukrainian election is announced between February 14 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Whether the election is supposed to take place in 2025 or later will have no effect on the resolution to this market. The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Government of Ukraine however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.