Next Prime Minister of Sweden
As of November 11, 2026, the favorite is Ulf Kristersson at 50%, ahead of Magdalena Andersson at 48%. $11.8M has traded across 10 outcomes. The biggest move this week: Ulf Kristersson, +25 pts.
The field
Three months of it
- Ulf Kristersson 50%
- Magdalena Andersson 48%
- Ebba Busch 0.8%
- Elisabeth Thand Ringqvist 0.3%
- Jimmie Åkesson 0.1%
Show the numbers
| Date | Ulf Kristersson | Magdalena Andersson | Ebba Busch | Elisabeth Thand Ringqvist | Jimmie Åkesson |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| August 13, 2026 | 11.5% | 85.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 1.7% |
| August 20, 2026 | 10.5% | 88.0% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.8% |
| August 27, 2026 | 14.5% | 85.5% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.5% |
| September 4, 2026 | 24.0% | 75.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 1.2% |
| September 11, 2026 | 16.5% | 84.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| September 18, 2026 | 4.2% | 93.5% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| September 25, 2026 | 11.3% | 86.5% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| October 3, 2026 | 14.3% | 81.5% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 0.2% |
| October 10, 2026 | 17.3% | 80.5% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| October 18, 2026 | 16.9% | 78.5% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 0.8% |
| October 27, 2026 | 23.9% | 71.5% | 3.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| November 4, 2026 | 27.9% | 63.5% | 3.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| November 11, 2026 | 50.2% | 48.0% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
Quick answers
- What are the odds for Ulf Kristersson in "Next Prime Minister of Sweden"?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 50% as of November 11, 2026, up 25 points from a week earlier. A 50 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- What are the odds for Magdalena Andersson in "Next Prime Minister of Sweden"?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 48% as of November 11, 2026, down 13 points from a week earlier. A 48 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- What are the odds for Ebba Busch in "Next Prime Minister of Sweden"?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 0.8% as of November 11, 2026, down 3 points from a week earlier. A 1 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- How are these odds calculated?
- They are the YES price of each contract on Polymarket: the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the spread is 10 cents or less, otherwise the last trade. Prices are fetched from Polymarket's public data and this page shows when.
How this one gets decided
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and assumes office as Prime Minister of Sweden following the next parliamentary election. To count for resolution, the individual must officially assume office. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister assumes office by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Sweden; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.