Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?
As of November 11, 2026, the favorite is December 31 at 8%, ahead of November 30 at 3%. $18.1M has traded across 13 outcomes.
The field
Three months of it
- December 31 8%
- November 30 3%
Show the numbers
| Date | December 31 | November 30 |
|---|---|---|
| August 13, 2026 | 16.5% | 9.5% |
| August 20, 2026 | 22.5% | 9.5% |
| August 26, 2026 | 18.0% | 9.5% |
| September 2, 2026 | 17.5% | 9.5% |
| September 9, 2026 | 15.5% | 9.5% |
| September 16, 2026 | 22.5% | 9.5% |
| September 22, 2026 | 17.5% | 9.5% |
| September 29, 2026 | 17.5% | 9.5% |
| October 6, 2026 | 15.0% | 9.5% |
| October 14, 2026 | 16.5% | 10.5% |
| October 23, 2026 | 17.0% | 11.0% |
| November 3, 2026 | 13.5% | 6.5% |
| November 10, 2026 | 8.0% | 3.5% |
| November 11, 2026 | 7.5% | 3.2% |
Quick answers
- What are the odds for December 31 in "Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?"?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 8% as of November 11, 2026, down 1 points from a week earlier. A 8 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- What are the odds for November 30 in "Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?"?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 3% as of November 11, 2026, down 1 points from a week earlier. A 3 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- How are these odds calculated?
- They are the YES price of each contract on Polymarket: the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the spread is 10 cents or less, otherwise the last trade. Prices are fetched from Polymarket's public data and this page shows when.
How this one gets decided
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730 ,