New Zealand legislative election winner?
As of November 11, 2026, the favorite is National Party at 98%, ahead of Labour Party at 2%. $1.1M has traded across 6 outcomes. The biggest move this week: National Party, +30 pts.
The field
Three months of it
- National Party 98%
- Labour Party 2%
- Green Party 0.1%
- ACT New Zealand 0.1%
- New Zealand First Party 0.1%
Show the numbers
| Date | National Party | Labour Party | Green Party | ACT New Zealand | New Zealand First Party |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| August 13, 2026 | 46.5% | 54.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| August 20, 2026 | 45.0% | 54.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| August 27, 2026 | 43.0% | 56.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| September 4, 2026 | 44.0% | 55.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| September 11, 2026 | 44.0% | 55.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| September 18, 2026 | 44.5% | 55.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.7% |
| September 25, 2026 | 44.5% | 55.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.6% |
| October 3, 2026 | 43.5% | 55.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.6% |
| October 10, 2026 | 47.0% | 54.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.6% |
| October 18, 2026 | 43.5% | 54.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.6% |
| October 27, 2026 | 60.0% | 35.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| November 4, 2026 | 68.5% | 29.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| November 11, 2026 | 98.3% | 1.7% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
Quick answers
- What are the odds for National Party in "New Zealand legislative election winner?"?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 98% as of November 11, 2026, up 30 points from a week earlier. A 98 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- What are the odds for Labour Party in "New Zealand legislative election winner?"?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 2% as of November 11, 2026, down 27 points from a week earlier. A 2 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- What are the odds for Green Party in "New Zealand legislative election winner?"?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 0.1% as of November 11, 2026. A 0 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- How are these odds calculated?
- They are the YES price of each contract on Polymarket: the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the spread is 10 cents or less, otherwise the last trade. Prices are fetched from Polymarket's public data and this page shows when.
How this one gets decided
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election. If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid part list votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed name appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the New Zealand House of Representatives in this election. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).