Politics / What the market thinks

Greece x Turkey military engagement by...?

As of November 11, 2026, the favorite is December 31 at 5%. $1.3M has traded across 2 outcomes.

Polymarket data, fetched Nov 11, 2026, 04:27 UTC / $1.3M traded / $53 in the last 24 hours / closes January 1, 2027

The field

Three months of it

Greece x Turkey military engagement by...?: implied probability over 90 days0%6%13%19%25%Aug 13, 2026Sep 27, 2026Nov 11, 2026
December 31 moved from 4% to 5% over 90 days (+1 pts). High: 12% on September 1, 2026. Low: 3% on August 14, 2026.
Show the numbers
DateDecember 31
August 13, 20264.1%
August 20, 20263.9%
August 27, 20265.0%
September 4, 20268.5%
September 11, 20268.3%
September 18, 20268.2%
September 25, 20268.1%
October 3, 20265.0%
October 10, 20264.9%
October 18, 20264.3%
October 27, 20269.7%
November 4, 20265.3%
November 11, 20265.3%

Quick answers

What are the odds for December 31 in "Greece x Turkey military engagement by...?"?
Polymarket traders priced it at 5% as of November 11, 2026, down 0 points from a week earlier. A 5 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
How are these odds calculated?
They are the YES price of each contract on Polymarket: the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the spread is 10 cents or less, otherwise the last trade. Prices are fetched from Polymarket's public data and this page shows when.

How this one gets decided

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military engagement between the military forces of Greece and Turkey by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "military engagement" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Greek and Turkish military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution; however, minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not. Missiles or drone strikes that are intercepted will not qualify, regardless of whether they land on adversarial territory or cause damage. Similarly, surface-to-air missile strikes impacting adversarial territory will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution (although surface-to-air missiles fired at an adversarial military aircraft would qualify). The resolution source for this market will be

The market on Polymarket