Politics / What the market thinks

Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by...?

This market resolved "December 31" on Polymarket after $5.8M in trading.

Polymarket data, fetched Nov 11, 2026, 05:25 UTC / $5.8M traded / $0 in the last 24 hours / closes December 31, 2026

The field

How this one gets decided

If Iran halts or severely restricts international maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official governmental information, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

The market on Polymarket