Opinion

Columns arguing a position about prediction markets and the news they price.

• Prediction Markets Are Not Polls, and the Midterms Proved It

  Our view: a prediction market price is the market's probability that one outcome happens, and nothing more. It does not measure how many voters back a candidate or how big a win will be. The 2026 midterms, where a 93% House price coexisted with a 13-point national margin, show how often that gets misread.