2028 Election Odds After the Midterms: Ossoff Up, Vance Slips

At 7 p.m. Eastern on November 3, 2026, as the first midterm polls closed, Polymarket gave Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis a 4.2% chance of winning the 2028 Republican presidential nomination. Four hours later the price was 11.3%. As of November 11 it is 16.0%. Over the same stretch, Georgia Sen. Jon Ossoff went from about 17% to 26.7% in the Democratic nomination market, and Vice President JD Vance, priced at 59% for the Republican nomination a year ago, slipped to 30.8%.

So what do prediction markets think about 2028, a week after Democrats took the House and the Senate? In short, they think the presidency is open. Ossoff and Vance are tied at about 17.4% each to win it, and no candidate in either party's nomination market is above one in three. All prices below are Polymarket midpoints (halfway between the best bid and best ask) as of November 11, 2026, unless another venue is named. Our live pages track each market: Democratic nominee, Republican nominee, presidential winner and winning party.

By the numbers

• 26.7%: Ossoff's price for the Democratic nomination, up 10.6 points over the past month by Polymarket's own count. A year ago, on November 11, 2025, he was at 4.7%.
• 30.8%: Vance's price for the Republican nomination, down 17.7 points in a month. On November 11, 2025, the same contract traded at 59%.
• 16.0%: DeSantis's price for the Republican nomination, up 13.5 points in a month, most of it since election night.
• 67.5%: Polymarket's price for a Democrat winning the White House in 2028, from a party-level market that has traded only about $2.7 million.
• $2.79 billion: combined volume in Polymarket's three big 2028 markets: $1.32 billion on the Democratic nomination, $738 million on the winner, and $734 million on the Republican nomination. Volume counts every trade since launch in July 2025, so it overstates the money at risk today.

What changed on election night?

Democrats recaptured both chambers of Congress on November 3, Newsweek reported. (Our midterm scorecard looks at how well the markets called those races.) Three things then happened inside the 2028 markets.

Ossoff won a second Senate term in Georgia, beating Trump-backed Rep. Mike Collins in a state Trump narrowly carried in 2024, Mediaite reported. In his victory speech he said "The American people have rebuked the depravity, corruption, and incompetence of the failed lame duck president." DeFi Rate wrote that traders read the win as evidence he could compete outside Democratic strongholds.

Vance took the blame for his side. He posted on X that the war with Iran cost Republicans the election; Newsweek and DeFi Rate both quote him: "The reason we lost is the war."

DeSantis, who is term-limited and leaves office in January, had already broken with the White House before the vote. On the eve of the election he told Stephen A. Smith's Straight Shooter that the Iran war was a "big, big drag" on Republicans, according to Newsweek. On Wednesday, November 4, at a press conference in Tallahassee, he called the results close to an "extinction-level event" for his party.

Polymarket's price history, sampled every two hours, shows how fast it moved. Ossoff's nomination price went from 17.4% at 7 p.m. ET on November 3 to 26.4% by 1 a.m. DeSantis's went from 4.2% to 11.9% in the same window. Vance fell from 36.8% to 31.1%.

Who leads the Democratic race?

Ossoff, at 26.7%, followed by Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 14.5% and California Gov. Gavin Newsom at 10.8%. Pete Buttigieg (5.4%), Kamala Harris (5.2%) and Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro (5.0%) are the only others near 5%.

There is a large condition attached to the Ossoff price. At an Atlanta Press Club debate in October, asked whether he would serve a full six-year term, he said "Yes, I will," and added: "I have zero interest in running for president. I'm not running for president. I'm running for re-election to the Senate" (Fox News; The Hill). Traders are paying 26.7 cents for a contract that pays a dollar only if he changes his mind and then wins.

Newsom is the Democratic market's biggest faller over the year. A year ago he was the Democratic favorite at 37.5%. He was still at 15.2% on November 3, and has dropped to 10.8% since. DeFi Rate noted that his redistricting push helped Democratic House gains, and read his slide as a rival drawing attention rather than a midterm failure.

The market also disagrees sharply with polls of Democratic voters. A Financial Times/Focaldata survey fielded October 2 to 5 had Harris first at 30%, Newsom at 15% and Ossoff at 8% (Newsweek). On October 5, Polymarket had Harris at 6.6% and Ossoff at 15.4%. A poll asks whom voters prefer today; the market prices who will end up nominated. Our column on that difference argues the two get confused far too often.

Is the Republican race open?

More than it was a month ago. Vance leads at 30.8%, Secretary of State Marco Rubio is at 18.2% and DeSantis at 16.0%. Tucker Carlson, John McEntee and Rep. Thomas Massie are each between 3% and 4%.

Vance's slide started before the election. At a CBS News town hall in Michigan on October 18, asked if he might not run, he said "Of course there's a chance. We've got four little kids, my wife has never loved politics" (The Post Millennial). His Polymarket price went from 48.4% on October 15 to 38.8% on October 28. Election night took it to about 31%. It bounced to 38.9% on November 6, then gave the gain back.

Kalshi, the other big venue, tells a similar story with different numbers. On the morning after the vote, Kalshi had Vance at 31%, Rubio at 22% and DeSantis at 18% for the nomination (The Daily Beast; Tampa Free Press). DeFi Rate's November 6 snapshot had Vance at 34% on Kalshi and 38% on Polymarket.

None of the leading names has declared. DeSantis said "Maybe someday. I don't know about '28." Rubio told The New York Times, "I literally will not talk about 2028 anymore." Newt Gingrich wrote on X that the defeat makes "the race for the GOP presidential nomination wide open" (all via Newsweek).

Who is favored to win the presidency?

Nobody, by a wide margin. Ossoff and Vance are at 17.4% each, followed by Ocasio-Cortez (10.6%), Rubio (9.3%), Newsom (7.8%) and DeSantis (6.0%). Ossoff was at 10.5% in the winner market on the evening before Election Day.

One caution on Polymarket's own change figures: the site lists Vance's winner price as up 5.9 points this week. That week began on the night of November 3 to 4, when his price briefly hit 11.5% before recovering. Measured from the day before the election (18.4%), he is down about one point.

Put the winner and nominee markets side by side and a pattern appears. This is our arithmetic, from separate markets with their own traders, so treat it as rough. Dividing each candidate's winner price by their nomination price gives the market's implied chance they win if nominated: about 65% for Ossoff, 73% for Ocasio-Cortez and 72% for Newsom, against 56% for Vance, 51% for Rubio and 38% for DeSantis. Those ratios line up with the party market, which has Democrats at 67.5% and Republicans at 32.5%, though that market's $2.7 million in volume is a rounding error next to the $738 million in the candidate version.

How much should anyone trust prices two years out?

Lightly. A year ago this week, Polymarket had Newsom at 37.5% for the Democratic nomination and Vance at 59% for the Republican one, with Ossoff under 5%. Each of those numbers has since moved by 20 points or more, and none of the leading names has entered the race. DeFi Rate's November 6 table showed Vance at 13% to win the presidency on Kalshi and 20% on Polymarket, a seven-point gap between venues on the same question.

Our read, as of November 11, 2026: the midterms did two things to these markets. They raised the price of a Democrat in 2028 and pushed it toward a candidate who says he is not running, and they extended a Vance slide that began with his own October 18 remarks, taking him from about 50% on October 1 to under 31%. The prices say the field is unsettled. They say much less about who will be on the ballot in November 2028.